The Cincinnati Reds managed to salvage a 4-3 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday, avoiding a series sweep and slightly improving their dismal 10-21 record in one-run games—the worst in the National League. The win keeps them out of the NL Central basement, for now, as they sit just a half-game ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates in their annual battle to avoid last place.

Despite their struggles, the Reds aren’t entirely out of the playoff picture yet. FanGraphs gives them a 2.0% chance of making the postseason—a number that feels like a Dumb and Dumber reference come to life. Still, the numbers paint a frustrating picture of this team’s shortcomings, especially on offense.

A Lackluster Offense Dragging Down an Elite Pitching Staff

The Reds rank second-worst in MLB in hard-hit rate, which helps explain why their collective 90 wRC+ is only better than the five worst teams in baseball by record. Despite their pitching staff accumulating 13.8 fWAR (fourth-best in the league), the offense has failed to provide consistent support. The Reds have actually outscored their opponents by 40 runs over the course of the season, yet they remain on the fringes of contention.

The offense has been decimated by injuries and underperformance:

• Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have been lost for the season.
• TJ Friedl has been in and out of the lineup.
• Noelvi Marte has struggled mightily, posting a 45 wRC+ since July—fourth-worst among 169 qualified hitters.
• Jeimer Candelario has been a liability, slashing .184/.242/.312 over his last 36 games. His 59 wRC+ since July is among the bottom 10 in baseball.

The Path Forward

https://www.stlouisfanshop.com/122-Cardinals_Jojo_Romero_Jersey

Despite all of this, the Reds remain just 4.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot. However, they must leapfrog five teams to make the postseason—a daunting task. One of those teams is the St. Louis Cardinals, who the Reds host tonight at Great American Ball Park.

For the past two months, every series has felt like a “must-win” for the Reds. Each time, they’ve failed to gain any real momentum. This series against St. Louis is yet another opportunity to turn things around. Whether they can finally capitalize remains to be seen.