Israel’s Retaliatory Attack on Iran Appears Carefully Calibrated

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Israel struck military bases but avoided targeting nuclear facilities. Iran has so far largely played down the attack, but now faces a decision about how to respond.

Here’s what to know.

 

Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran early Saturday marked a new escalation between the two archrivals, although it appeared to be calibrated to stop short of all-out war.

Israel, which for the first time publicly acknowledged conducting a military operation inside Iran, targeted military facilities in its attack. But it avoided sensitive nuclear sites that the Biden administration had warned against striking.

Iran largely played down the strike, which it said had killed four soldiers, easing fears of an uncontrollable conflict between the two most powerful militaries in the Middle East. Tehran now faces a decision about whether to up the ante: If it retaliates, that could further fan the flames of crisis, but if not, it runs the risk of looking weak with its allies and at home.

The attack came after a large barrage of ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel early this month in response to the assassinations of several officials of Iran and its allies. On Saturday, Israel’s fighter jets focused on roughly 20 military installations, including air defense batteries, radar stations and missile production sites, according to Israeli officials.

Iran’s national air defense force said that Israel had attacked military bases in three provinces but that air defenses had been able to limit the damage. Three news agencies said that the city of Tehran itself had not been hit and that civilian airports were operating normally, though blasts could be heard throughout the capital.

For years, Israel and Iran have fought a clandestine war in which each side targets the other’s interests and allies, while rarely taking responsibility for their attacks. That turned into open confrontation as the war between Israel and Hamas, Iran’s ally in Gaza, pulled the two countries toward a direct clash.

After the Hamas-led attack in Israel a year ago unleashed Israel’s devastating war in Gaza, Iran’s other proxies in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, began striking Israel in solidarity with their Palestinian ally. Israel, in turn, scaled up its attacks on Iranian interests around the region, with both sides responding in force as tensions flared at various moments.

Here’s what else to know:

  • Iran’s reaction: Iran’s Foreign Ministry accused Israel of inflaming tensions across the region and said that Tehran was “entitled and obligated to defend itself against foreign acts of aggression.” State television and media outlets affiliated with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps played down the attacks.

  • Gaza and Lebanon: Israel’s latest military offensive in northern Gaza entered its third week as its air force and ground troops pressed on with the fight in Lebanon. Israeli airstrikes killed three people in Jabaliya, according to the official Palestinian news media, and Israel said its forces had struck sites in Lebanon and battled Hezbollah fighters in multiple locations in the last day.

  • United States informed: The Pentagon said that Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III had spoken with Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, to receive updates on the strikes in Iran. Sean Savett, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said after the attack began that the United States had been informed of Israel’s plans.

  • Warning from Israel: The Israeli military warned Iran against further escalation, saying in a statement that it would be “obligated to respond.” Daniel Hagari, a military spokesman, said in a news conference that there were no immediate changes to the government’s civil defense orders to the public, indicating that the authorities were not expecting an attack.

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