The poll represents a decline in support for Harris since The Times’ previous poll in early October that showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump, while at least three surveys over the past week show Trump with a narrow advantage and six others found Harris leading.
Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in a CNBC survey of registered voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal registered voter poll out Wednesday (margin of error 2.5)—a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey.
Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those who are leaning toward one candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes survey released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), and he’s up one point, 49% to 48%, without so-called leaners.
Several other recent polls show Harris ahead: In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% advantage over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.
Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters also released Wednesday (margin of error 3) when third-party candidates are on the ballot and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point dip in her lead from the groups’ previous survey taken Oct. 12-15.
Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls prior to last week.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, found Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points when using rounded figures, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also found her with a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.
Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters taken Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups’ last poll taken in August that found Harris ahead by five points.
Harris also led Trump by just one point—49%-48%—in Emerson College’s poll of likely voters published Friday, after Harris posted two-point leads in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.
Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.
Who Is Favored To Win The Election, Harris Or Trump?
Trump is favored to win 51 times out of 100, compared to 49 for Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver also gives Trump a narrow 52.8/46.9 edge, but wrote recently he’s “never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50.”
Big Number
1.7. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics’ polling average shows a tie, and Nate Silver has Harris up 1.3 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.
How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?
Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, according to the Silver Bulletin. All of the states have margins within less than two points.
Surprising Fact
A poll from NBC News released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll—which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters—showed 54% supported Harris compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure who they would vote for. The support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than past leads Democratic candidates have had, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polling and 50-point lead in 2016 polling. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
How Did The Debate Impact Polls?
Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to plateau, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate surveys show the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the horserace between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sept. 19 found the majority of voters in every demographic gave positive reviews of Harris’ Sept. 10 debate performance, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days following the debate on Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.
